老龄化来临“中国制造”如何保持比较优势——立足于制造业出口复杂度的分析

doi:10.16388/j.cnki.cn42-1843/c.2023.01.007

江汉学术 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 60-71.doi: 10.16388/j.cnki.cn42-1843/c.2023.01.007

老龄化来临“中国制造”如何保持比较优势——立足于制造业出口复杂度的分析

张小溪¹，张菂²

¹中国社会科学院经济研究所，北京 100836；²中国社会科学院大学经济学院，北京 102445

收稿日期:2022-05-16 出版日期:2023-02-15 发布日期:2022-12-27
作者简介:张小溪，女，云南昆明人，中国社会科学院经济研究所副研究员，中国社会科学院大学经济学院副教授，博士，E-mail：zhxx@cass.org.cn；张菂，女，河北石家庄人，中国社会科学院大学经济学院硕士生，E-mail：zhangdi@ucass.org.cn。
基金资助:
中国社会科学院创新工程项目“公司治理、金融与创新增长”（CASS-CX-JJ-ZJY）；中国科协高端科技创新智库青年项目“数字时代服务贸易高质量发展的理论、路径与对策研究”（2021ZZZLFZB207114）

How“Made-in-China”Preserves a Comparative Advantage against Population Aging：Analysis Based on the Complexity of Manufactured Exports

ZHANG Xiaoxi^1，2，ZHANG Di²

¹Institute of Economics，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 100836；²School of Economics，University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 102445

Received:2022-05-16 Online:2023-02-15 Published:2022-12-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国正处于并将长期处于老龄化进程中，在老龄化时代劳动力比较优势逐渐丧失的情况下，制造业如何获取新的比较优势参与国际竞争成为亟待研究的问题。劳动力供给减少导致劳动力成本上升，进而对劳动密集型产业形成倒逼机制，促使出口产业结构转型升级；劳动力质量提高促进人力资本形成，进而产生人力资本循环机制，提升出口产品的技术和效率。这两种作用机制解释了老龄化对制造业出口复杂度的正向作用。基于中国大陆2002—2019年的省级面板数据，实证检验出老龄化对提高出口复杂度有积极影响。考虑到区域发展的不均衡，进一步将样本按照中、东、西和东北部进行划分，结果仍然表明老龄化有助于提升出口复杂度。此外，在全样本检验中，受教育年限、经济发展水平、基础设施建设水平和贸易开放度对制造业出口复杂度均具有显著的正向影响。但是，经济发展水平和基础设施建设水平在西部和东北部地区的样本分析中显示出负面影响。因此，基于地区禀赋优势打造国内雁阵模式、建立多层次有序衔接的现代职业教育体系、进一步释放老龄化的人力资本积累效应，是打造“中国制造”新比较优势的关键。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 出口复杂度, 比较优势, 制造业, 劳动力成本, 人力资本, 中国制造

Abstract: China is and will be in the aging process in a long period to come. When the comparative advantage of labor is gradually lost in a time of population aging，how is the manufacturing industry to obtain new comparative advantages and participate in international competition？ This is an urgent issue for study. The reduction of labor supply leads to the increase of labor cost，followed by the formation of an anti-driving mechanism in the labor-intensive industries，which forces export industries to undergo structural transformation and upgrading；nevertheless，the improvement of labor quality promotes the formation of human capital，followed by the formation of a human capital circulation mechanism，which can improve the technology and efficiency of exported products. The above two working mechanisms explain the positive effect of population aging on the complexity of manufactured exports. Based on the provincial level panel data of Chinese mainland from 2002 to 2019，an empirical study proves the positive impact of population aging on improving the complexity of manufactured exports. In case of the unbalanced development in different regions，the samples are classified according to the central，eastern，western，and northeastern regions of the country，but the result remains unchanged. In the test of all samples，factors including education years，economic development levels，infrastructure construction levels，and trade openness have a prominent positive impact on the complexity of manufactured exports. In contrast，in regional samples of the western and northeastern regions，factors including economic development levels and infrastructure construction levels have a negative impact. Hence，the key points of building the new comparative advantage of“made-in-China”are to create a domestic flying geese model based on regional endowment advantage，establish a multilayer and orderly connected modern vocational education system，and further release the human capital accumulation effect of the aging population.

Key words: population aging, complexity of exports, comparative advantage, manufacturing industry, labor cost, human capital, made-in-China

中图分类号:

F015
F061.2

张小溪，张菂. 老龄化来临“中国制造”如何保持比较优势——立足于制造业出口复杂度的分析[J]. 江汉学术, 2023, 42(1): 60-71.

ZHANG Xiaoxi，ZHANG Di. How“Made-in-China”Preserves a Comparative Advantage against Population Aging：Analysis Based on the Complexity of Manufactured Exports[J]. JIANGHAN ACADEMIC, 2023, 42(1): 60-71.

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老龄化来临“中国制造”如何保持比较优势——立足于制造业出口复杂度的分析

How“Made-in-China”Preserves a Comparative Advantage against Population Aging：Analysis Based on the Complexity of Manufactured Exports

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