江汉大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 308-316.

• 化学与环境科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

1970 年以来湖北省气候变化与旱涝灾害响应分析

陈前江, 延军平*   

  1. 陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710119
  • 出版日期:2015-08-28 发布日期:2015-08-13
  • 通讯作者: 延军平
  • 作者简介:陈前江( 1989—), 男 , 硕士生, 研究方向: 全球气候变化与区域灾害防治。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目( 14AZD094)

Analysis on Climatic Change and Responses to Drought-Flood Disasters in Hubei from 1970

CHEN Qianjiang, YAN Junping*   

  1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710119, Shanxi, China
  • Online:2015-08-28 Published:2015-08-13

摘要: 湖北省是中国亚热带地区的内陆省区 , 具有气候变化响应的特殊性。 依据湖北省分布较为均匀的 17 个气象站点 1970-2013 年的逐月气温和降水数据, 运用线性回归 、 插值分析、 Mann-Kendall 突变检验、 Morlet 小波分析和标准化降水指数 SPI 等数理分析统计方法, 对湖北省近 44 年来气候变化的时空分异规律以及旱涝灾害响应特征进行分析, 结果显示:( 1) 近 44 年来, 湖北省年降雨量呈减少趋势, 其减少的速率为 16. 16 mm / 10a, 年平均气温呈波动上升趋势, 其上升的速率为 0. 30 ℃ / 10a, 整体呈暖干化趋势;( 2) 通过对年均温做 Mann-Kendall 突变检验后发现, 湖北省气温在 1994 年前后发生突变, 之后呈现出较大幅度的增温趋势;( 3) 就旱涝灾害来说, 湖北省旱涝灾害频繁, 中度、 重度和极端旱涝灾害发生频率高达 31. 8%。 研究证明 : 在暖干化趋势的背景下, 湖北省气候变化响应体现出显著的阶段性特征, 具有特殊性, 其旱涝灾害也因气候变化体现出周期性干湿变化规律, 当前几年正处于偏干旱阶段, 旱灾较多 。

关键词: 气候变化, 旱灾, 涝灾, 应急响应, 湖北省

Abstract: Hubei is a subtropical province in the inland region of China, it has a specific response to drought-flood disasters. Based on the monthly temperature and rainfall data from 17 meteorological sites from 1970-2013, with linear regression, spatial interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet, the SPI index and the other mathematical statistics method, to analyze the spatiotemporal difference of climatic change and the characteristic of the responses of drought-flood disasters. The results showed:( 1)In recent 44 years, the rainfall of Hubei reduced with the rate of 16. 16 mm/10 a and the annual average temperature rose with a speed of 0. 30 ℃ / 10 a.( 2) From the Mann-Kendall test, it was found that the abrupt change of the temperature took place in 1994 and then the temperature rose up sharply.( 3) The drought-flood disasters of Hubei were frequent, and the moderate, severe and extreme drought-flood disasters accounted a proportion of 31. 8% . The study proves that under the background of warming and drying, the responses to the climatic change had a characteristic of period and speciality, the droughtflood disasters embodied periodic law and the drought was prominent in recent years

Key words: climatic change, drought, flood, emergency response, Hubei Province

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