关键词: SWOT, 济南市高校, 篮球专选班, 回归分析

Abstract: Objective Using SWOT to analyze the development of college basketball selective classes in Jinan City，to understand the problems of college basketball selective classes in Jinan City，and to put forward the corresponding development strategies. Methods The basketball selective classes from 5 universities in Jinan City were selected as the research object. A total of 300 samples were collected using questionnaires. The samples were processed and analyzed by data statistics. Results ① The reliability and validity of the questionnaire were tested by α coefficient evaluation，KMO value，Bartlett′s sphericity test，and the contribution rate of the rotation matrix. It was concluded that the questionnaire had high reliability and validity， and the samples were suitable for factor analysis. ② A linear regression equation was established based on the data relationship between variables. The constant of the equation was 2. 349. The degree of satisfaction of factor 1 for the satisfaction degree of teachers was defined as X₁；factor 2 for the environment and equipment of the basketball court was defined as X²；factor 3 for the training effect was defined as X³；factor 4 for the overall satisfaction of the course was defined as Y. The regression equation was obtained by SPSS：Y = 2. 349 + 0. 352X¹ + 0. 103X² + 0. 056X³. ③ Through the strategic analysis of the SWOT matrix，four strategic methods were obtained，which are respectively：pioneering（SO），striving（WO），struggling（ST），and conservative（WT）. Conclusion ① The most important factor to improve the training effect of college students′ basketball course is the professional level of the basketball teachers，followed by the environment and equipment，and finally the effect of students′learning and exercise. ② The strategy in line with the development of basketball training in Jinan colleges and universities is pioneering and striving：making good use of the material resources and human resources inside and outside the school to train basketball talents，and strengthening the flow of teachers between colleges to promote the development of basketball in colleges and universities；takeing the advantages of basketball rules，the relatively complete conditions of basketball competition in Jinan colleges and universities，a strong basketball atmosphere and foundation，and the league′s own functions for promotion；grasping the needs of national and regional policy support and project development，more college competitions should be held to promote the development of basketball in colleges and universities.

Key words: SWOT, colleges and universities in Jinan, basket ball selective class, regression analysis