关键词: 肺结核, 流行病学, 曲线聚类, 地区分布, 季节分布

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in China，and to provide reference for formulating strategies for prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis in China. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in China over the past 2005 to 2016 years，the method of functional curve clustering based on B-spline was applied for cluster analysis based on the similarity of incidence time trajectories in 32 regions. Results The incidence curve for 2005-2016 showed a downward trend. The number of reported cases of tuberculosis in 2016 decreased by 33. 59% compared with the same period in 2005；the incidences of infants and children aged 14 and below were relatively low，and the incidences of elderly people aged 60 and above were higher；the incidences of tuberculosis were highest in January and March each year, the incidences of tuberculosis were lowest in December every year；the incidences of tuberculosis in Hainan，Guangxi，Guizhou，Tibet and Xinjiang were relatively high，and the annual incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang was as high as 180. 42/100 thousand. The 32 regions of the country were divided into four categories based on the similarity of incidence time trajectories. The incidences of Guizhou and Xinjiang of the first type were generally higher than those of the other three types，and the fluctuations were larger；the epidemic situations of the first type and the second type in Qinghai and Tibet were more severe. Conclusion The country′s 60-year old and above is the key target of national prevention and control. Every year in January and March，the prevention and control measures to tuberculosis should be strengthened. The prevention and control of tuberculosis in Guizhou，Xinjiang，Qinghai and Tibet need focus and support of the state.

Key words: pulmonary tuberculosis, epidemiology, curve clustering, regional distribution, seasonal distribution