关键词: 地方政府债务风险, 违约概率, Dagum基尼系数, 财政分权, 官员晋升激励

Abstract: By the no-arbitrage approach，the default probabilities of China’s 31 provinces in the 2015—2020 period are calculated based on the credit spreads and bond rates of the local government bonds. By the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method and the kernel density estimation method，the regional disparities of local governments’debt risks are empirically analyzed. The results are as follows：in the designated period，the overall local governments’debt risks present an inverted U shape trend，with the regional debt risk gap gradually narrowing；the source of the regional disparity of local governments’debt risks is the cross and overlap of regional debt risks；and that the debt risk gap among provinces in the eastern region fluctuates the most，the gap in the central region gradually narrows，and the gap in the western region remains basically unchanged. The findings reflect not only the effects of fiscal decentralization，official promotion incentives，urbanization，soft budget constraints，land finance and taxation，but also the influence of regional coordination and factor flow；they also disclose the large interregional risk spillover effect and the irrational pricing and allocation of bonds. In terms of policy，from the perspective of domestic great circulation，attention should be paid to the characteristics of debt risk gap within and between different regions， the market-oriented pricing of government bonds should be promoted， the allocation of debt quotas for less developed regions should be increased， and the collaborative governance between different regions should be strengthened.

Key words: debt risk of local government, probability of default, Dagum Gini coefficient, fiscal decentralization, official promotion incentive