江汉大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 70-81.doi: 10.16387/j.cnki.42-1867/c.2023.06.007

• 经济理论与实践 • 上一篇    下一篇

波动溢出视角下亚洲主要经济体汇率风险的传染效应及其溯源研究

姚登宝,刘 畅,余 敏   

  1. 姚登宝,刘 畅,余 敏. 安徽大学 经济学院,安徽 合肥 230601;姚登宝. 安徽大学 金融与统计研究中心,安徽 合肥 230601)
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-08 出版日期:2023-12-28 发布日期:2025-01-06
  • 作者简介:姚登宝,男,安徽大学经济学院副教授,安徽大学金融与统计研究中心研究员;刘 畅,女,安徽大学经济学院硕士研究生;余 敏,女,安徽大学经济学院硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目“‘强监管’与‘去杠杆’双重约束下我国系统性金融风险的演化机制及其监控研究”(71803002);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“金融支持安徽战略性新兴产业集群发展的效率评价与路径优化研究”(AHSKY2021D135)

The Contagion Effect of Exchange Rate Risk in Major Asian Economies and Its Traceability from the Perspective of Volatility Spillover

YAO Dengbao,LIU Chang,YU Min   

  1. YAO Dengbao,LIU Chang,YU Min.Economics School,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601;YAO Dengbao.Financial and Statistical Research Center, Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601)
  • Received:2023-09-08 Online:2023-12-28 Published:2025-01-06

摘要: 在重大事件频发与美联储持续加息的背景下,世界汇率市场频繁震荡影响着金融市场的稳定发展。基于汇率稳定在全球经济中的基石作用,探讨美联储不同加息周期里亚洲主要经济体货币汇率的波动,通过构建 LASSO-VAR 模型从波动溢出的角度对不同时间维度下亚洲主要经济体汇率市场汇率的波动风险传染进行研究,结果表明:从静态角度看,亚洲汇率市场中的波动率风险溢出网络呈现“高度聚类”和“地域邻近”的特点,主要经济体间的货币汇率波动存在一定的联系;从动态角度来说,美联储的加息会加剧亚洲汇率风险的跨区域传染,量化宽松政策则会缓和汇率风险传染;整体上来说人民币依然作为风险的溢入方,而风险传染的源头主要是来自发达经济体货币汇率的波动,如韩元、新加坡元、新西兰元等。

Abstract: In the context of frequent major events and continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,frequent fluctuations in the world exchange rate market affect the stable development of the financial market. Based on the cornerstone role of exchange rate stability in the global economy,this paper explores the currency exchange rate fluctuations of major Asian economies in different rate hike cycles of the Federal Reserve. ALASSO-VAR model is constructed to study the volatility risk conta? gion of the exchange rate market of major Asian economies in different time dimensions from the per? spective of volatility spillover. The results show that from the static point of view,the volatility risk spillover network in the Asian exchange rate market presents the characteristics of“high clustering”and“geographical proximity,”with a certain correlation between currency exchange rate movements among major economies;from a dynamic point of view,the Fed′s interest rate hike will intensify the cross-regional exchange rate risk contagion in Asia,while its quantitative easing policy will ease the exchange rate risk contagion;on the whole,RMB is still a risk importer,and the source of risk con?tagion is mainly the exchange rate fluctuations of developed economies,including the Korean won,Singapore dollar,and New Zealand dollar。

Key words: LASSO-VAR model;DY overflow index;contagion of exchange rate risk;volatility spillover effect;risk traceability

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