关键词: 资产配置；长期失业；经验法则；生命周期；福利损失

Abstract: Influenced by the economic downward pressure， the potential unemployment risk of an individual is mounting. To evade the adverse effect，aperson should adjust his/her traditional financial management method and make a plan of asset allocation for the life cycle. But this does not mean they should invest their assets heavily on stocks when they are young. Alife cycle model involving chronic unemployment risk is set up to explore how long-term unemployment risk affects lifelong welfare loss through asset allocation variations. The results show the risk of long-term unemployment will perpetually dim the future revenue outlook of a person； the risk of human capital devaluation after chronic unemployment will cause a considerable welfare loss （accounting for 2.92%to 8.62%of total annual consumption）；and that such a welfare loss stems from the excessive risk undertaken by young investors when they are faced with uncertain labor supply and pension income in the future. The finding provides long-term institutional investors with a new perspective of pension planning.

Key words: asset allocation；chronic unemployment；empirical law；life cycle；welfare loss